The States Where Land Is Still Mispriced in 2026

By Drew Haney · Founder, Rooster Capital · May 2, 2026

Easy mispricing — the $500 desert square that sells for $5,000 — got mostly worked through. What’s left is more interesting and concentrated in specific regions.

The mispricing thesis

Land mispricing is real but it’s smaller than it was three years ago. The easiest mispricing — back-tax desert squares for $500 that sold for $5,000 — got worked over hard during the 2020–22 cycle. What’s left is more nuanced.

The strongest mispricing in 2026 is in middle-of-the-distribution properties: $20–80K parcels in counties where the comp data is sparse, the local broker market is thin, and the seller pool is full of inheritors who haven’t paid attention to land prices in years.

Where I see mispricing concentrating in 2026

1. Rural Tennessee and Kentucky

The boomer generation in Appalachia inherited a lot of land from parents and grandparents. Many never lived on it. As they age, parcels are coming to market through estate sales at prices that haven’t adjusted to the recreational-buyer demand of the last 10 years.

Watch for: parcels with road frontage, water source, near a population center within 60 minutes. End-buyer demand from urban/suburban buyers wanting a weekend property is strong.

2. Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas

Similar dynamic. Cheap acreage, recreational appeal, growing buyer pool from Tulsa/Bentonville/Fayetteville suburbs. Local sellers are pricing to local norms; non-local buyers value differently.

3. North Central Florida (away from the coasts)

Coastal Florida is fully priced. Inland 50–100 miles is still uneven. Buyers from Tampa/Orlando looking for second homes / homestead land are paying real money for parcels the local market still prices at 2018 levels.

4. The Texas hill country fringe

Center of the hill country is fully priced. Edges — western fringe near the Davis Mountains, northern fringe past Llano — still have arbitrage. Operators who know the actual buyer pool can find $40–100K parcels that resell at $80–180K.

5. Specific Western states with timber/recreational appeal

Eastern Oregon, Idaho panhandle, parts of western Montana. Lower price band ($25–75K) parcels with timber, water, or hunting appeal. The buyer pool is national now — remote-work buyers from California / Pacific Northwest cities — but the seller pool is local. Mismatch persists.

Where the mispricing has DRIED UP

• Sub-$5K desert squares in Arizona, Nevada, Utah — basically all of these have been arbitraged through. Still works at scale but margins are thinner.
• Florida coastal counties — fully priced
• Parts of Colorado near major resort towns — fully priced
• Suburban-fringe parcels near major MSAs — competition from developers crushed margins

What to look for in a mispriced market

1. Sparse comp data. If county records show 30+ parcel sales in the last 12 months, the market is efficient. If it shows 5–10, mispricing is more likely.
2. Out-of-state buyer demand. If you can find evidence that out-of-state buyers are quietly accumulating, the local sellers usually haven’t adjusted yet.
3. Inheritance-heavy seller pool. Counties with high median age and high pass-through rates of inherited land tend to have softer sellers.
4. Distance from major markets. 60–90 minutes from a metro area is the sweet spot — close enough for buyers to drive, far enough to be unfashionable to local pricing.